In a striking announcement, Liberal MP Nate Erskine-Smith revealed that he plans to resign from his federal position as soon as a provincial by-election is officially called for the Scarborough Southwest riding in Toronto. This decision comes despite Ontario Premier Doug Ford not yet having set a specific date for the electoral contest.
Mr. Erskine-Smith’s transition into provincial politics signals his anticipated bid to take the helm of the Ontario Liberal Party. This shift is expected to have significant implications at Queen’s Park, particularly as Mr. Ford seeks to secure a fourth consecutive term in office.
The need for a provincial representative in Scarborough Southwest arose unexpectedly due to Doly Begum’s resignation, who previously served as the deputy leader of the Ontario NDP. In a recent turn of events, Ms. Begum has been selected as the Liberal candidate in the corresponding federal riding, which was vacated by former minister Bill Blair, who has stepped down to become Canada’s next high commissioner in the UK.
On Wednesday, Mr. Erskine-Smith affirmed his commitment to remain part of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s caucus until the call for the provincial election is made, citing the importance of every vote amid the minority government scenario. He stated to reporters in Ottawa, "Once Doug Ford announces the by-election, I’m fully committed and will resign my seat here. Meanwhile, it's crucial to recognize what's at stake in Ottawa; each vote truly matters."
Once the Speaker receives the official notification of the vacant provincial seat, Premier Ford has a six-month window to schedule the by-election. The election could potentially take place as early as March or as late as September, according to regulations set by Elections Ontario. When asked about the timing, Mr. Ford mentioned he had not yet made a decision.
"I genuinely like Doly; I believe she would make an excellent federal MP if she wins. There will be a time for calling the by-election, but I’m uncertain about when that might be," Mr. Ford commented to Global News following an event in Mississauga.
When questioned about the possibility of facing off against Mr. Erskine-Smith in the race, Mr. Ford replied, "We’ll just work as hard as we can and hopefully we can flip that seat."
Additionally, Ms. Begum addressed some of her recent remarks that criticized Mr. Carney's stance on the Middle East, comments that drew criticism from the Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs. During a session in the Ontario legislature last November, she asserted that the federal government needed to establish its "moral backbone" by ceasing to send arms to Israel and "enabling this genocide."
In a statement sent to The Globe and Mail through the federal Liberal Party, Ms. Begum expressed her outrage regarding the ongoing crisis in Gaza. She stated, "Like many Canadians, I have been horrified by the situation. At times, I felt that governments, including Canada, did not respond swiftly enough, and I’ve openly discussed that. However, I also recognize that Mark Carney’s new Liberal government has enhanced Canada’s engagement in the region, providing meaningful humanitarian assistance while advocating for a fair and lasting peace."
Ms. Begum, who has a background in health care and community advocacy, first secured her position in Scarborough during the 2018 elections. The Progressive Conservatives have consistently placed second in this area over their eight years in power, with the Liberals taking third—though they previously held the seat while in government.
While Mr. Erskine-Smith, who currently represents the nearby federal riding of Beaches-East York, intends to make a run for the provincial seat, it remains unclear whether the Ontario Liberals will conduct an open nomination process or appoint a candidate directly. "No decisions have been made yet regarding whether there will be an open nomination or an appointment for the Scarborough Southwest candidate. For now, our focus is on finalizing the details of our leadership race, which will be announced by Monday," stated Madalyn Calzavara, the executive director of communications and legislative affairs for the Ontario Liberal caucus.
NDP Leader Marit Stiles shared with The Globe in an interview that she was unaware of Ms. Begum’s intentions to leave her party, labeling it a "challenging moment." She emphasized that the NDP will continue to represent Scarborough Southwest during this period and is committed to conducting a thorough search for candidates, promising open nominations.
"The NDP has deep roots in Scarborough Southwest," she noted, referencing former leader Stephen Lewis, who represented the area during the 1960s and 70s.
In a notable sidestep of the nomination process, the federal Liberals appointed both Ms. Begum and Danielle Martin, a physician who is set to contest in the Toronto riding of University-Rosedale, previously held by cabinet minister Chrystia Freeland. Although the specific dates for these two by-elections are yet to be confirmed, Mr. Erskine-Smith expressed his belief that they will be scheduled promptly.
