Could this be BYU's year to truly dominate? After a nail-biting double-overtime victory against Arizona, the Cougars are riding high, but the stakes are about to get even higher as they prepare to face their arch-rivals, the Utah Utes. This isn't just any game; it's a battle with significant implications for the Big 12 title race and potentially a coveted spot in the College Football Playoff. Let's dive into what ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) is predicting for this crucial matchup and what it means for BYU's overall season outlook.
FPI is forecasting a photo finish in Provo. The numbers give BYU a slight edge, with a 51.0% chance of defeating the Utes on their home turf. This rivalry game is always a clash that goes down to the wire, regardless of the records of each team. The Cougars will try to achieve a three-game winning streak against the Utes, a feat they haven't accomplished since the early 1990s. Can they pull it off?
Before the season even kicked off, FPI projected BYU to win 8.5 games. Now, after seeing them in action, the forecast has been bumped up to 9.6-2.4. That's a significant jump! Breaking down the remaining schedule, FPI indicates that BYU is favored in every game except for one: their matchup against Texas Tech. Remember, these are just projections, and anything can happen on game day. An injury to a key player, an unexpected turnover, or even just a bad bounce of the ball can completely change the outcome.
Now, let's talk about what constitutes a "special season." For the purposes of this analysis, we're defining it as achieving 10 or more regular-season wins. Hitting that 10-win mark would not only put BYU in serious contention for the Big 12 championship but could also open doors to the College Football Playoff. According to FPI, BYU has a 54.9% chance of reaching that coveted 10-win threshold, a notable increase from 45.2% the previous week. And for those dreamers out there, FPI gives them a 3.8% chance of going undefeated. But here's where it gets controversial... some fans believe that BYU's schedule isn't as challenging as other top contenders, which could impact their playoff chances even with a strong record. What do you think?
Here's a detailed breakdown of BYU's win probabilities, according to FPI:
- 7 wins or more: 99.8%
- 8 wins or more: 97.0%
- 9 wins or more: 84.0%
- 10 wins or more: 54.9%
- 11 wins or more: 22.0%
- 12 wins (undefeated): 3.8%
Following their victory over Arizona, BYU climbed one spot to No. 19 in the FPI rankings. However, they're no longer the highest-ranked Big 12 team. Utah surged ahead after a dominant performance against Arizona State. And this is the part most people miss... Texas Tech has skyrocketed into the top 10 after a decisive win against Kansas. The Red Raiders are definitely a team to watch.
Currently, BYU, Utah, and Texas Tech are the only Big 12 teams sitting within the top 30 of the FPI rankings. This could be a sign of a shifting landscape within the conference, with new contenders emerging.
Turning our attention to conference title aspirations, FPI considers Texas Tech the clear frontrunner. They also have a favorable conference schedule ahead of them. BYU is currently second in line, according to FPI. Here's a glimpse at the teams with the best odds of winning the Big 12, according to FPI:
BYU and Texas Tech are the only two teams with a greater than 15% chance of clinching the conference title, and only four teams in the league boast better than a 5% chance. Could we be looking at a BYU vs. Texas Tech showdown for the Big 12 crown? Only time will tell.
Finally, let's talk about the ultimate goal: the College Football Playoff. FPI gives BYU a 30.0% chance of making it to the playoff, which is the second-best odds in the conference. Here are the Big 12 teams with the highest playoff aspirations, according to FPI:
So, the question remains: Can BYU live up to these expectations and deliver a truly special season? Will they conquer their rivals, navigate a challenging conference schedule, and ultimately secure a spot in the College Football Playoff? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! Do you agree with FPI's projections, or do you think they're underestimating (or overestimating) BYU's chances?
